corruga.expert analysis · Q2 / H1 2026
We compared the latest results from major corrugated, containerboard and fibre-packaging groups across three continents. Mondi lost €136 million of Corrugated Packaging EBITDA while volumes rose.
SCGP lifted profit 128%. Nine Dragons reported +225% net profit. PCA set a corrugated shipment record. The split is now impossible to ignore.
Mondi’s Corrugated Packaging business is the sharpest example, but it is not an isolated one. Put the latest results from Smurfit Westrock, International Paper, PCA, Stora Enso, Billerud, SCGP, Nine Dragons and Sappi side by side and the 2026 market stops looking like a simple recovery.
The industry is splitting into two groups: companies that are turning extra tonnes and square metres into cash — and companies that are not.
2025
quarter
EBITDA fell
The €136 million that disappeared
In H1 2026, Mondi’s containerboard sales volumes increased 12%. Corrugated box volumes increased 2% like-for-like. Corrugated Packaging revenue increased from €1.893 billion to €1.977 billion.
Yet underlying EBITDA fell from €284 million to €148 million — a drop of €136 million, or almost 48%. The EBITDA margin fell from 15.0% to 7.5%.
More paper. More boxes. More revenue. Almost half the EBITDA.
Mondi points to lower average selling prices and higher input costs. The converter-level problem is especially important: paper-price increases move through the value chain faster than box prices can always be reset.
“We took strong pricing actions, maintained cost discipline, progressed our plant network optimisation programme.” — Andrew King, CEO, Mondi.
That is the first big 2026 lesson: a corrugator can be busier and the business can still become less profitable.
The scoreboard: what actually happened
These companies report in different currencies and use different profit measures, so this is not an accounting league table. The useful comparison is the direction inside each business — and the label in the last column tells the story faster than another page of numbers.
| Company / period | Sales / revenue | Profit signal | Volume / demand | What actually happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock Q2 2026 | +1.1% | Adj. EBITDA -6.0%; margin 14.2% vs 15.3% | Strong paper demand; higher freight/input costs | Demand recovered faster than margin |
| International Paper Q2 2026 | ~$6.0bn sales | Adj. EBITDA $587m; continuing-operations loss $12m | North American box volumes improved | Box growth, but earnings recovery lagged |
| PCA Q2 2026 | +14.7% sales | Adj. EBITDA +7.7%; reported net income -20.5% | Legacy corrugated shipments +4.1%, record quarter | Best North American shipment story |
| Mondi — Corrugated Packaging H1 2026 | +4.4% revenue | Underlying EBITDA -47.9%; margin 7.5% vs 15.0% | Containerboard +12%; boxes +2% LFL | Volume without pricing power |
| Stora Enso Q2 2026 | Sales ~flat | Adj. EBITDA +14.5%; adj. EBIT +27% | Top line almost unchanged | Profit without volume growth |
| Billerud Q2 2026 | -4% sales | Adj. EBITDA -27.5%; margin 7% vs 9% | Volumes flat; NA currency-neutral sales +11% | Two regions, two different markets |
| SCGP Q2 2026 | +3% revenue | EBITDA +37%; profit +128% | Indonesia back to profit; Vietnam strong | Best margin conversion |
| Nine Dragons Paper* FY2026 H1 | +11.2% revenue | Net profit +225.1% | Sales volume +8.3%; ASP +2.7% | Volume + price + integration |
| Sappi** Q3 FY2026 | +1% revenue | Adj. EBITDA -33.8%; loss widened | Packaging & speciality volumes +14% | Upstream version of the same squeeze |
* Nine Dragons uses a fiscal H1 ended 31 December 2025. ** Sappi is an upstream packaging-paper / paperboard producer, not a corrugated-box
producer. Profit measures differ by company; use the table as a directional operating comparison, not a GAAP/IFRS profitability ranking.
Mondi vs Stora Enso: almost mirror images
Mondi
More volume, more revenue, much less EBITDA.
Corrugated box volumes +2%; Corrugated Packaging revenue +4.4%; underlying EBITDA -47.9%.
Stora Enso
Almost no sales growth, much better operating
profit. Q2 sales were essentially flat, while adjusted EBIT increased about 27% and the margin improved from 5.2% to 6.6%.
If both companies are selling into a difficult European environment, why do the outcomes look so different? Part of the answer is timing and portfolio. Stora Enso is benefiting from its own operational and portfolio actions, including the Oulu ramp-up, while Mondi is absorbing a far more severe squeeze inside Corrugated Packaging.
This is why “the market is weak” is no longer a sufficient explanation. Execution, mix, plant footprint and the speed of price recovery are now separating companies inside the same geography.
“We are not standing still and we are not relying on market conditions to improve our performance.” — Hans Sohlström, President and CEO, Stora Enso.
Why the paper-to-box lag hurts more now
Our reading of the reports suggests three mechanisms are colliding.
- Input shocks arrive quickly. Freight, energy, fibre and maintenance costs can hit a quarter immediately.
- Box pricing often resets more slowly. Contracts, customer negotiations and competition delay full pass-through.
- Weak markets reduce pricing power. In Europe especially, oversupply makes it harder to recover every paper increase without risking volume.
Mondi explicitly describes the pass-through problem. International Paper’s EMEA business has shown the same pressure. Billerud says European demand remains muted and board markets oversupplied, while North America is behaving much better.
The market data backs up the margin story
Fastmarkets’ April 2026 briefing explicitly mapped how an oil shock moves into corrugated costs through energy, transport, chemicals, converting and distribution — exactly the cost stack producers are describing in their earnings. In North America, Fastmarkets and Packaging Dive reported that roughly 10% of containerboard capacity was removed in 2025; by June 2026, full targeted price increases were being implemented and mill backlogs had stretched to five to eight weeks. That helps explain why North American pricing power is improving faster than in Europe.
“The significant capacity reductions over the past year have helped lift operating rates to healthier levels.” — Xinnan Li, Senior Analyst, RaboResearch.
A simple plant scenario: how margin disappears while the corrugator stays busy
If your paper and logistics costs rise today, but your box-price recovery happens only at the next customer review, every square metre shipped in between can carry a lower contribution. If competitors are chasing the same volume, the “temporary” lag can become incomplete recovery.
PCA vs International Paper: the North American split-screen
PCA produced perhaps the strongest North American corrugated operating result in the group. Q2 sales increased almost 15%, and legacy corrugated shipments rose 4.1% to an all-time quarterly record. Adjusted EBITDA also increased 7.7%.
“We achieved an all-time quarterly record in total corrugated shipments in our legacy corrugated operations.” — Mark W. Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO, PCA.
International Paper shows the other side. North American box volumes improved, but adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was lower and
the company reported a continuing-operations loss. Meanwhile, it continues to rationalise its network and invest in selected stronger assets.
Two major producers. Same broad geography. Very different conversion of demand into earnings.
One note on DS Smith: there is no separate 2026 DS Smith earnings row to add. International Paper acquired DS Smith in January 2025, so the legacy DS Smith assets are now inside International Paper’s reporting and its EMEA business.
When 3% revenue gives 128% profit
SCGP is the most useful counterexample in the article because it proves the margin squeeze is not inevitable.
Q2 revenue +3%. EBITDA +37%. Profit +128%.
SCGP says Indonesia returned to profitability, Vietnam remained strong, and price adjustments, cost optimisation, energy-mix changes and production efficiency all helped.
“The overall packaging industry in the second quarter of 2026 demonstrated continued growth.” — Wichan Jitpukdee, CEO, SCGP.
That is a very different recovery model from simply waiting for demand. It is a recovery built around utilisation, pricing and cost execution at the same time.
China: volume, price and profit moved together
Nine Dragons adds another important counterpoint. In its FY2026 first half, sales volume increased 8.3%, average selling prices increased 2.7%, revenue rose 11.2% and net profit jumped 225.1%.
The reporting calendar is different from the Western Q2/H1 companies, so it should not be read as a perfect same-period comparison. But strategically it matters: Nine Dragons is showing what can happen when volume growth is accompanied by price improvement and deeper raw-material integration.
Europe is asking: can we recover costs? Nine Dragons is showing the opposite equation: volume + price + integration.
Europe is not one market either
Billerud’s Q2 makes the geographic split unusually clear. Group net sales fell 4% and adjusted EBITDA fell from SEK912 million to SEK661 million. But North American currency-neutral sales grew 11%, shipments there were the highest since late 2022, and the company says pricing more than offset cost inflation.
Europe remained weak, with muted demand and oversupply of board materials. Billerud says it still lacks credible evidence of a sustainable European recovery.
This matters for corrugated producers because “global demand” is becoming a less useful planning number. A plant in the U.S. Midwest, Germany, Poland, Vietnam and Indonesia can be living in five very different markets at the same time.
Sappi: the same problem one step upstream
Sappi is not a boxmaker, but the result is too relevant to ignore. Packaging and speciality-paper volumes increased 14% year on year, while adjusted EBITDA fell from $80 million to $53 million. In North America, packaging and speciality volumes increased 41%, while selling prices remained below the prior year.
That is an upstream version of the same story: volume recovery arrived before price and margin recovery.
Graphic Packaging: the warning is wider than corrugated
Graphic Packaging is primarily folding carton and paperboard, not corrugated. But its Q1 result is a useful adjacent stress test: sales increased 2%, while adjusted EBITDA fell from $365 million to $232 million and adjusted EBITDA margin dropped from 17.2% to 10.8%.
The company attributed the decline to weaker price/volume/mix, input inflation and operational performance. In other words, the margin-conversion problem is not confined to corrugated boxes.
Latin America: Klabin is the growth check
Klabin is the Latin American growth check. The latest fully indexed 2026 release remains Q1: net revenue reached R$4.9 billion (+2%), adjusted EBITDA was R$1.7 billion, total sales volume increased 12%, paper sales rose 15%, and packaging shipments reached 408 million m² (+3.6%) — above the market, according to the company.
The mix matters. Klabin says processed foods, personal care & cleaning and fruit were more resilient end-use sectors. The company also describes Piracicaba II as the largest and most modern corrugated packaging facility in the Americas. So Klabin is not only a demand story; it is a scale-and-efficiency benchmark for what integrated Latin American corrugated production can look like.
What H2 2026 is really telling us
1. Volume recovering faster than margin is no longer a surprise. It is becoming the new operating test. The question is not “are orders back?” but “how much contribution survives each additional order?”
2. Paper-to-box lag is now one of the most dangerous conversion risks. Especially in a weak market, cost inflation can arrive faster than customer repricing.
3. Geography matters more than the global average.
SCGP and Nine Dragons look very different from several European groups; Billerud’s own North America/Europe split proves it inside one company.
4. Winners are protecting contribution margin per m², not chasing volume at any price.
5. Closures and investment at the same time are not contradictory. Capital is moving toward the plants and machines that can earn acceptable returns.
Two red flags and two green signals for your next plant meeting
Red flags
- Shipped m² are rising, but contribution / EBITDA per m² is
falling for more than one reporting cycle. - Paper, freight or energy costs are being recovered later than the
customer pricing window — or not fully recovered at all.
Green signals
- Saleable m² per paid labour hour is improving without a parallel
rise in waste, overtime or complaints. - CAPEX has a named KPI — waste, labour, uptime, energy or
changeover — and the plant can verify the gain after six
months.
What should you watch every week?
- Contribution margin / EBITDA per m², not only
shipped m². - Paper-price-to-box-price recovery lag, measured
in days or weeks. - Freight, fibre and energy cost per m².
- Corrugator OEE, uptime and changeover
minutes. - Saleable m² per paid labour hour.
- Profitability by customer and SKU.
- CAPEX payback at realistic utilisation, not the
optimistic sales-plan case.
The corruga.expert view: 2026 is a margin-conversion test
The first half of 2026 is not telling us that corrugated demand has disappeared. It is telling us something tougher: extra volume no longer guarantees extra profit.
Mondi proves that more boxes can coexist with dramatically lower EBITDA. Stora Enso proves that almost flat sales can still create better operating profit. SCGP proves that 3% more revenue can become 128% more profit. Nine Dragons shows what happens when volume and price move together.
If your volumes are growing faster than your profit, the problem is no longer demand. The problem is the economics of your plant — and 2026 is exposing it very quickly.
Sources
Company results: Smurfit Westrock, International Paper, PCA,
Mondi, Stora Enso, Billerud, SCGP.
Additional companies: Nine Dragons Paper, Sappi, Graphic
Packaging, Klabin.
Market context: Fastmarkets / Fastmarkets RISI, Packaging Dive,
RaboResearch.
corruga.expert: previous company analyses and public
investor-relations materials.
